In This Deep-Dive
30-Second Summary 1. Rates Overview: Great Hensen 40HQ Actuals 2. Lane-by-Lane Analysis 3. Red Sea Diversions: The Cost Floor Is Softening (A Phased Suez Reopening) 4. Surcharge Alerts: Low Quotes Often Exclude Surcharges 5. Index Reference and How to Read It 6. September Risks and Scenarios 7. Act Now- Europe–Mediterranean rates keep easing: SCFI Europe $2,643/TEU (Sep 4 release, −2.7% WoW, nine straight weekly declines), Mediterranean $3,442/TEU (−3.2% WoW); Great Hensen 40HQ actuals: North Europe $3,500, West Med $3,600, East Med $4,500.
- Sharp declines vs. August: North Europe down from $4,400–5,700 to $3,500, West Med from $5,400–6,000 to $3,600, East Med from $5,700–6,300 to $4,500 — the traditional September lull, pre-National Day cargo-soliciting pressure and carrier price wars are all bearing down on rates.
- Suez reopening is accelerating (the cost floor is softening): major carriers are switching services back to Suez in batches (Maersk has restored about one-third of its former Suez volumes, MSC has run five trial voyages, CMA CGM has made roughly 199 transits so far in 2026), while Cape of Good Hope-routed capacity has fallen from a peak of 380 ships / 5.5M TEU to 280 ships / 4.0M TEU — opening further downside for rates.
- Action point: lows look set to persist and actuals are already attractive — shippers with committed volumes can lock rates in batches; non-urgent cargo can still watch for a little more downside, but the room below is constrained by the pace of the Suez reopening.
1. Rates Overview: Great Hensen 40HQ Actuals
| Sub-Lane | 40HQ Actual | vs. August | Space | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Europe (Rotterdam / Hamburg / Antwerp / Zeebrugge) | $3,500 | ↓ From $4,400–5,700 | Normal | Diversion adds +10–14 days; transit times should shorten as services return to Suez |
| West Mediterranean (Genoa / Valencia / Marseille) | $3,600 | ↓ From $5,400–6,000 | Normal | Slightly above North Europe |
| East Mediterranean & Black Sea (Piraeus / Istanbul) | $4,500 | ↓ From $5,700–6,300 | Tight | Black Sea / regional disruption; more volatile than North Europe |
| North Africa (Algeria, etc.) | Above East Med (actuals on request) | ↓ Down in step | Tight | Surcharges stack up noticeably |
2. Lane-by-Lane Analysis
2.1 North Europe — Rotterdam / Hamburg / Antwerp
Current level: SCFI Europe benchmark $2,643/TEU (Sep 4; −2.7% WoW; nine straight weekly declines); Great Hensen 40HQ actual: $3,500. Most of the market is trading around $3,600–4,200 — Maersk opened W38 at $3,600, MSC around $3,700–4,000, Ocean Alliance strings averaging about $4,000 and PA Alliance at $3,500–3,600 — so Great Hensen's actual sits at a competitive low.
What's driving it: the traditional September lull combined with pre-National Day cargo-soliciting pressure — Maersk led the cuts and the alliances followed, taking rates below $4,000; European demand keeps softening and the spot market is back to real supply-demand fundamentals.
September outlook: lows persist. The hidden capacity released by the Suez reopening caps any rebound — blank sailings announced by Hapag-Lloyd and others provide some floor but cannot reverse the trend — while the downside remains limited by the pace of the reopening and geopolitical variables.
Impact on shippers: the $3,500 actual is already attractive, so lock committed volumes in batches; the +10–14 days of diversion still needs buffer in your schedule planning. Surcharges add about $1,200–2,000 per 40HQ on top of base rates — always ask for an all-in quote.
2.2 West Mediterranean — Genoa / Valencia / Marseille
Current level: Great Hensen 40HQ actual: $3,600 — slightly above North Europe.
What's driving it: following the North Europe trend down; late-summer IT upgrades and environmental inspections at Italian and Spanish ports are causing minor delays, but the direction is clearly lower.
September outlook: soft at low levels; if the Suez reopening advances further, West Med could fall faster.
Impact on shippers: sporadic strikes at Italian ports (Genoa) and stricter EU emissions checks can slow clearance — plan for post-arrival processing time.
2.3 East Mediterranean & Black Sea — Piraeus / Istanbul
Current level: Great Hensen 40HQ actual: $4,500 — the highest range across Europe–Mediterranean.
What's driving it: cargo is mainly cross-border e-commerce and light parcels with flexible restocking; Black Sea / regional disruption makes this lane more volatile than North Europe — NCFI East Med weekly declines are frequently steeper than the Europe index overall.
September outlook: still easing but choppier; temporary space tightening and regional events can still produce localized rebounds.
Impact on shippers: rates are highly elastic — small lots can wait for cheaper quotes in late September, but watch for temporary tightening during the declines and for destination-port surcharges.
3. Red Sea Diversions: The Cost Floor Is Softening (A Phased Suez Reopening)
The structural cost floor remains — but it is softening: roughly 90%+ of container ships still route via the Cape of Good Hope, stretching Shanghai→Rotterdam from 28–32 days to 38–46 days, and the diversions absorb about 6–7% of global capacity (1.3–1.8M TEU). That said, the reopening has moved from "initial signals" in August to a phased restart.
Accelerating reopening (the biggest variable): as of early September, Maersk has restored about one-third of its former Suez volumes (Gemini trunk services such as AE19 / AE15 are back), MSC is phasing back in through five trial voyages, and CMA CGM has made roughly 199 Suez transits so far in 2026 (more than its full-year 2025 total); Cape-routed capacity has fallen from a peak of 380 ships / 5.5M TEU to 280 ships / 4.0M TEU. If the reopening is fully implemented, Asia–Europe will release an additional 15–20% of hidden effective capacity, opening further downside for rates. But Houthi actions and geopolitical messaging remain contested — a full reopening still needs time.
4. Surcharge Alerts: Low Quotes Often Exclude Surcharges
Many of the rock-bottom quotes now on the market cover base ocean freight only — adding the surcharges lifts the total cost by $1,200–2,000 per 40HQ:
- PSS (peak-season surcharge): ahead of the National Day holiday several carriers have cut or cancelled Far East→Europe–Mediterranean PSS, which is why booking-window base rates are even lower.
- WAR (war-risk surcharge): typically $400–700 per 40HQ (still applied on Red Sea-related and diversion strings).
- EU ETS (carbon allowance surcharge): around $180–320 per 40HQ.
- EBS (bunker adjustment surcharge): floats with oil prices.
- September-specific: North European port strikes (Germany and the Netherlands, Sep 2–4), plus a mid-to-late-September "double arrival" of fast Suez-routed strings and slow Cape-routed strings, may push destination-side surcharges such as WRS and GRI higher — partially offsetting the low base rates.
Recommendation: always ask for an all-in rate when requesting quotes, and avoid the trap of a low base rate paired with high destination-collect surcharges.
5. Index Reference and How to Read It
| Index | Latest Value | Change | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCFI Europe | $2,643/TEU (Sep 4) | −2.7% (nine straight weekly declines) | Official benchmark keeps falling |
| SCFI Mediterranean | $3,442/TEU (Sep 4) | −3.2% | Official benchmark keeps falling |
| SCFIS Europe | 3,047.62 points (Aug 31) | −5.9% | Spot rates continuing to fall |
| WCI Shanghai→Rotterdam | $4,092/FEU | −5% | Actuals weakening |
| WCI Shanghai→Genoa | $4,368/FEU | −10% | Mediterranean falling harder |
| CCFI Europe | Still easing (August base: 1,901.27) | — | Still high year-on-year, now turning down |
Contrast with North America: Europe–Mediterranean shows no divergence — index and market rates are falling in step. There is no "sticky index, soft actuals" split here, so confidence in this read is high and the direction is clearly down.
6. September Risks and Scenarios
| Risk | Impact | Probability | Response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newbuild deliveries + capacity returning to service | Pressure pushing rates down | High | Non-urgent cargo can wait and watch |
| Faster Suez reopening | Downside opens up; deeper declines | Medium | Seize the window; book in batches |
| Geopolitical escalation / heavier diversions | Localized rebounds | Low-to-medium | Lock rates early |
| North European port strikes (Germany / Netherlands, Sep 2–4) + double arrivals | Destination congestion; quietly higher surcharges | Medium | Build in buffer; expedite container pickups |
| Demand surprises to the upside | Declines stall; rebound | Low-to-medium | Lock committed volumes |
Three scenarios: A (base case) lows persist with gradual, grinding declines. B the reopening materializes faster → deeper declines. C geopolitical escalation → localized rebounds and heavier diversions.
7. Act Now
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The 40HQ levels in this report are Great Hensen's actual concluded rates (as of September 4, 2026). Index data: Shanghai Shipping Exchange SCFI (September 4 release: Europe $2,643/TEU, −2.7% WoW, nine consecutive weekly declines; Mediterranean $3,442/TEU, −3.2% WoW). Suez reopening and diversion data per carrier announcements and industry reports (Maersk has restored approximately one-third of its former Suez volumes; MSC five trial voyages; CMA CGM roughly 199 transits in 2026). Surcharges are subject to confirmation at the time of booking.