Executive summary: SCFI at 3,326.87
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) composite reached 3,326.87 in the first week of July 2026, posting a +2.69% week-on-week gain. This marks the 10th consecutive week of increases and represents a 4-year high. But the headline number masks dramatic divergence across trade lanes: US routes are surging on tariff frontloading and strong consumer demand, while Europe and Mediterranean routes are showing signs of softening, and Middle East rates are being propped up by the ongoing Hormuz Strait crisis.
This market report covers all seven major container trade lanes from China, with a special focus on Qingdao port departures. As a Qingdao-headquartered freight forwarder, Great Hensen tracks SCFI movements daily and maintains direct carrier relationships with MSK, HPL, MSC, COSCO, HMM, OOCL, EMC, YML, and CMA CGM across all routes.
Route-by-route at a glance
US routes: the strongest performers
US East Coast rates hit $8,296/FEU (+12.35% WoW), while US West Coast reached $6,630/FEU. Tariff frontloading ahead of potential policy changes and resilient US consumer spending are driving demand far beyond available capacity. Carriers are deploying their largest vessels on Transpacific lanes, pulling capacity from secondary trade routes. US route detailed analysis coming soon.
Europe: peak season frontloading fades
North Europe rates stand at $3,700/20ft and $6,300/40ft, with the market beginning to soften after an early peak season. Shippers moved cargo earlier than usual in May-June, pulling demand forward and leaving a gap in July bookings. Europe route detailed analysis coming soon.
Mediterranean: holding firmer than Europe
West Mediterranean FAK rates are at $5,700/20ft and $7,700/40ft, while East Mediterranean commands $6,200/20ft, both significantly higher than North Europe. The Mediterranean market is supported by Red Sea diversions that reduce effective capacity and by spillover demand from the Middle East crisis. Mediterranean route detailed analysis coming soon.
Middle East: crisis-driven but declining
The SCFI Persian Gulf route stands at $4,292/TEU, down 4.35% week-on-week. All-in rates from China to Jebel Ali remain at $4,500-$5,000/20ft and $5,500-$6,000/40ft. The Hormuz Strait remains in a state of "volatile managed reopening" with daily transits at only 30-40 vessels versus a pre-crisis average of 95-138. Carriers continue routing via Khorfakkan with transshipment to Jebel Ali. Read the full Middle East analysis.
South America: the biggest decline
SCFI Santos posted the steepest drop across all routes at -7.82% WoW. Spot rates are at $4,700-$5,100/20ft from major Chinese ports. A massive capacity glut (capacity more than doubled in three years while demand grew only 7%) combined with vessel-sharing agreement breakdowns is driving the decline. Read the full South America analysis.
West Africa: persistent high rates
FCL rates to Lagos range from $2,800 to $7,500/20ft with extreme volatility. Lagos port congestion (14-21 day anchorage wait) and carrier capacity reallocation to more profitable US routes are keeping rates elevated despite global softening. Read the full West Africa analysis.
North Africa: the strongest performer
CMA CGM FAK rates to Algeria hit $7,200/20ft and $10,200/40ft, nearly double North Europe rates. Red Sea diversions have cut effective capacity by 25%, and customs clearance delays of 3-7 days per vessel compound the capacity crunch. Read the full North Africa analysis.
The divergence story: why US surges while other routes soften
The current market is defined by one central dynamic: carrier capacity reallocation. With US East Coast rates at $8,296/FEU, major carriers (MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM) have clear financial incentive to deploy their best vessels and container equipment on Transpacific routes, according to Drewry World Container Index data and carrier rate announcements. This pulls capacity from secondary lanes like West Africa and South America, creating a two-tier market where US shippers face premium pricing while other routes see softer rates but reduced service quality.
The second factor is the Red Sea/Suez Canal disruption. Vessels that would normally transit the Suez Canal to reach the Mediterranean, North Africa, and Middle East are now diverting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days per voyage. According to Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SCFI) data and carrier rate announcements (MSK, HPL, MSC, COSCO), this effectively reduces global container capacity by 7-10%, with the impact concentrated on Asia-Europe, Mediterranean, and Middle East routes.
SCFI route comparison table (July 3, 2026)
| Route | Index / Rate | Weekly Change | Trend | Qingdao Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCFI Composite | 3,326.87 | +2.69% | Up (10th week) | N/A |
| US East Coast | $8,296/FEU | +12.35% | Strongly up | $8,350/FEU |
| US West Coast | $6,630/FEU | +8.52% | Strongly up | $6,700/FEU |
| North Europe | $3,700/20ft, $6,300/40ft | Stable to soft | Easing | $3,850/20ft, $6,450/40ft |
| West Mediterranean | $5,700/20ft, $7,700/40ft | Stable | Stable | $5,850/20ft, $7,900/40ft |
| East Mediterranean | $6,200/20ft | Stable | Stable | $6,350/20ft |
| Persian Gulf / Middle East | $4,292/TEU | -4.35% | Declining from peak | $2,000/20ft (base ocean) |
| South America (Santos) | $4,700-$5,100/20ft | -7.82% | Declining | $5,100/20ft, $7,400/40ft |
| West Africa (Lagos) | $2,800-$7,500/20ft | Volatile | Elevated | Contact for spot |
| North Africa (Algeria) | $7,200/20ft (CMA CGM FAK) | +10% (June) | Up | $7,350/20ft (est.) |
| South Africa (Durban) | $2,200-$2,600/20ft | +3-5% | Stable | $2,400-$2,800/20ft |
| East Africa (Mombasa) | $2,600-$3,000/20ft | +5-8% | Stable | $2,800-$3,200/20ft |
Qingdao port rate advantage
For shippers based in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces, Qingdao port offers a meaningful cost advantage over Shanghai and Shenzhen. Departures from Qingdao typically save $200-$400 per container on domestic trucking costs compared to routing through Shanghai, and the port's deep-water berths accommodate the largest container vessels in service today.
Great Hensen's headquarters is located 5km from Qingdao Qianwan Container Terminal, giving us direct terminal access for expedited loading and real-time vessel coordination. Our team maintains daily communication with carrier representatives at the port, allowing us to secure competitive rates and priority equipment release even during peak season. For DG cargo (classes 2-9), Qingdao is one of China's top three ports by DG handling volume, with dedicated DG storage yards and experienced inspection teams. Learn more about our DG freight capabilities.
Key Qingdao-to-world rates we track daily:
- Qingdao to Dubai/Jebel Ali: $2,000/20ft, $2,200/40ft base ocean. Full Middle East rates
- Qingdao to Santos: $5,100/20ft, $7,400/40ft. Full South America rates
- Qingdao to Lagos: Spot rates available on request. Full West Africa analysis
- Qingdao to Algiers: $7,350/20ft estimated. Full North Africa analysis
- Qingdao to Europe/North Europe: $3,850/20ft, $6,450/40ft. Contact for current spot.
- Qingdao to Mediterranean: $5,850/20ft West Med, $6,350/20ft East Med. Contact for current spot.
What shippers should watch in July-August 2026
July 15 is the critical decision date for the Middle East. If Hormuz Strait daily transit volume reaches 60+ vessels for two consecutive weeks with no new incidents, carriers may begin re-evaluating diversion strategies. If not, current elevated Middle East pricing will persist through August.
For South America, watch for blank sailing announcements. If rates fall too far, carriers may begin canceling voyages to tighten supply, which would reverse the current downward trend rapidly. For North Africa, CMA CGM's July 1-15 loading window restriction means space is critically tight, and rates are unlikely to ease in the near term.
Across all routes, the Red Sea/Suez Canal situation remains the single largest variable. Industry consensus, confirmed by carrier rate announcements (MSK, HPL, MSC, COSCO) and Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SCFI) data, is that container lines are unlikely to return to Suez Canal routing in 2026. If this holds, global effective container capacity will remain constrained by 7-10% through year-end.
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We publish monthly SCFI market reports and weekly rate alerts for all major trade lanes. Our team in Qingdao monitors carrier rate announcements, port congestion data, and geopolitical developments that affect container shipping costs. For real-time rate quotes tailored to your specific cargo and destination, contact our team directly.