English Version
South America Shipping Rates Decline July 2026: Why the Drop and What's Next
The SCFI Santos (Brazil) route posted a 7.82% week-on-week decline in early July 2026 , one of the steepest drops across all major trade lanes. Spot FCL rates from Shanghai to Santos now hover around $4,700/20ft and $7,200/40ft, down roughly $100/container from June. While still elevated by historical standards, the trend line has clearly turned downward. Here's why.
The Numbers: Where Rates Stand Now
| Route | 20ft (USD) | 40ft (USD) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai → Santos | $4,700 | $7,200 | Declining |
| Shenzhen → Santos | $4,800 | $7,200 | Declining |
| Ningbo → Santos | $4,900 | $7,200 | Declining |
| Qingdao → Santos | $5,100 | $7,400 | Declining |
| Shanghai → Rio de Janeiro | , | $7,200 | Declining |
| Ningbo → Paranaguá | , | $7,200 | Stable to declining |
SCFI Santos route index: down 7.82% week-on-week (July 3, 2026).
Transit times remain stable at 29-35 days (FCL) from main Chinese ports to Santos.
Why Rates Are Falling: The Overcapacity Story
The decline is not driven by weak demand , it's driven by a massive capacity glut that's been building for three years.
Capacity has more than doubled. According to Alphaliner and Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SCFI) data, in Q1 2026, capacity offered on the Asia-South America trade exceeded 2 million TEU , more than double what it was three years ago. The vessels deployed are also significantly larger, with some ships now 50% bigger than those used just two years ago. CMA CGM's M2X service, for instance, deploys vessels averaging 14,300 TEU , among the largest on the trade.
Demand growth can't keep up. Year-to-date volumes (January-May) reached 2.13 million TEU, up 7.1% from 1.99 million TEU in the same period last year, according to China Ministry of Transport data. That's healthy growth , but it's a fraction of the capacity increase. The result: too many slots chasing too few containers.
Vessel-sharing agreements are unraveling. The Ocean Alliance carriers , CMA CGM, COSCO, OOCL, and Evergreen , have historically operated Asia-South America services jointly. That's now breaking apart:
Evergreen's WSA service: CMA CGM and OOCL have exited. Evergreen is now the sole tonnage provider, with COSCO, Wan Hai, and PIL as slot charterers. 11 ships of 8,500 TEU.
CMA CGM's M2X service: Evergreen is exiting as a slot charterer. CMA CGM will operate it standalone with 14,300 TEU vessels.
CMA CGM's ACSA1 service: Evergreen is leaving. CMA CGM operates it with 11 ships of 7,700 TEU. OOCL and COSCO remain as slot charterers.
When carriers go standalone, they typically add capacity to fill their own ships , intensifying the oversupply.
Why It Started in July: Three Catalysts
Peak season frontloading is over. Shippers moved cargo earlier than usual in May-June to avoid expected rate hikes. That pulled demand forward, leaving a gap in July bookings.
New direct services came online. PIL launched two new weekly South America west coast feeder services (CA1 and CA2), adding further capacity to an already saturated trade.
Carrier rate discipline is weakening. With excess capacity and VSA partners going their separate ways, carriers are competing more aggressively on price to fill ships. Contract rates are following spot rates downward.
The Counterbalance: Why Rates Aren't Collapsing
Despite the overcapacity, rates remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Three factors provide a floor:
Port congestion at Santos. Santos handles 55% of Brazil's GDP-related trade. Congestion can add up to 5 days to transit times, tying up vessel capacity and container equipment.
Strong bilateral trade fundamentals. China-Brazil bilateral trade exceeded $150 billion in 2025, with China's exports growing 23.3% in 2024, according to China Ministry of Transport, World Trade Organization (WTO), and Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade (MDIC) trade statistics. The demand base is solid , it's just not growing fast enough to absorb the capacity surge.
Reefer export growth. Chinese food importers seeking alternatives to US products are driving growth in South American perishable exports (meat, fruit, fish) to Asia. Carriers are adding reefer capacity, which supports rate levels even as dry cargo rates soften.
What Shippers Should Expect
Short-term (July-August): Rates likely to continue declining 5-10% as the capacity overhang works through the system. But don't expect a cliff , port congestion and the upcoming South American export season will provide some support.
Medium-term (Q3-Q4 2026): The key risk is blanked sailings. If rates fall too far, carriers may begin blanking voyages to tighten supply , a pattern seen in previous oversupply cycles. Schedule reliability is already falling: "more capacity doesn't always mean better service," as one Latin American forwarder noted.
Practical advice:
Book 3-4 weeks in advance to lock in declining rates
Monitor carrier blank sailing announcements , they can reverse the trend quickly
Consider longer-term contract rates if your volumes justify it , current spot rates may not last
Note: DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) is prohibited by Brazilian law. Importers or their agents must handle taxes and clearance at the port of arrival
中文版
2026年7月南美航线运价回落：原因分析与后市展望
SCFI桑托斯（巴西）航线7月初周环比下跌7.82%, , 这是所有主要航线中跌幅最大的之一。上海到桑托斯的FCL即期运价目前在$4,700/20尺、$7,200/40尺左右，较6月下降约$100/柜。虽然仍高于历史水平，但下行趋势已经明确。以下是原因分析。
最新运价数据
| 航线 | 20尺（美元） | 40尺（美元） | 趋势 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 上海→桑托斯 | $4,700 | $7,200 | 下降中 |
| 深圳→桑托斯 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 下降中 |
| 宁波→桑托斯 | $4,900 | $7,200 | 下降中 |
| 青岛→桑托斯 | $5,100 | $7,400 | 下降中 |
| 上海→里约热内卢 | , | $7,200 | 下降中 |
| 宁波→巴拉那瓜 | , | $7,200 | 稳中偏降 |
SCFI桑托斯航线指数：周环比下跌7.82%（2026年7月3日）。
Qingdao port: the preferred South America gateway for Shandong exporters
For shippers in Shandong province, Qingdao Port offers 1-2 direct weekly sailings to Santos, making it the most convenient and cost-effective departure point for South American routes. Shandong is China's heavy machinery manufacturing hub, home to companies like SANY Heavy Industry (三一重工), Sinotruk (中国重汽), and Shantui (山推股份), all of which regularly ship oversize and heavy-lift equipment to Brazilian infrastructure projects.
Qingdao departures save $200-$400 per container on domestic trucking compared to Shanghai for Shandong-based shippers. Our headquarters 5km from Qianwan Container Terminal gives us direct access to carrier booking desks and real-time vessel scheduling. For project cargo and OOG (Out of Gauge) shipments to South America, Qingdao's deep-water berths can accommodate the largest vessels on the trade, including CMA CGM's 14,300 TEU M2X service vessels. Learn more about our heavy-lift and project cargo services.
Related trade lanes
- China to Brazil freight forwarding , FCL rates to Santos, Rio de Janeiro, Paranagua
- Global Shipping Rates Market Report July 2026 , SCFI composite at 3,326.87, all major trade lanes