In this report
1. Eight Trade Lanes at a Glance (Qingdao · 40HQ)2. Lane by Lane: Rates, Causes, and What to Do3. Index Reference (data as at 1 October 2026)4. October Increase Calendar and How to Respond5. Risks This Month and the Right Response1. Eight Trade Lanes at a Glance (Qingdao · 40HQ)
| Trade lane | Main ports | Our rate 40HQ | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Europe base | Rotterdam / Hamburg / Antwerp | 3,300 | Down early month, jump risk on 19 Oct |
| West Mediterranean | Genoa / Valencia / Marseille | 3,700 | Same pattern |
| East Med & Black Sea | Piraeus / Istanbul | 4,800 | Holding high |
| North America | Los Angeles / New York | 7,000 / 9,000 | Rising post-holiday |
| South America | WCSA 6,300 / ECSA 5,600 Caribbean 9,500 / CentAm 7,000 / Mexico 6,100 |
5,600–9,500 | USD 1,000 added on 15 Oct |
| Africa | South Africa 5,200 / West Africa 4,200 / East Africa 5,000 | 4,200–5,200 | South Africa +30%; W & E Africa lower |
| Southeast Asia | From 1,000 Haiphong (seven ports below) | 850–1,900 | Overbooked, high roll risk |
| Middle East | Jebel Ali (Dubai) | 7,800 | High plateau |
| India Subcontinent | Nhava Sheva | 3,800 | Tightening |
| Australia | Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane | 5,000 | Rising |
Unit note: all figures are Great Hensen working rates from Qingdao in USD per 40HQ. A 40HQ typically runs at 1.6 to 1.8 times a 20GP – never divide a 40HQ rate by two to estimate a small-box budget. Ask us separately for 20GP pricing.
How to compare months: our September and October editions are both quoted per 40HQ, so the two can be subtracted directly. Lane-by-lane comparison below.
1.1 Southeast Asia, seven ports (the congestion hotspot)
| Country | Main ports | Our rate 40HQ | What matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Vietnam | Haiphong | 1,000 | Tightest space |
| South Vietnam | Ho Chi Minh / Cai Mep | 1,300 | Frequent rolling |
| Thailand | Laem Chabang / Bangkok | 1,500 | Thai–Vietnam index up ~46% |
| Singapore | Singapore | 1,700 | Transhipment pressure |
| Malaysia | Port Klang | 1,900 | 7–27 Sep dredging, berth pressure |
| Indonesia | Jakarta | 1,500 | Red-light inspection period brought forward |
| Philippines | Manila | 850 | Lowest of the month |
1.2 September to October, working rates compared (both 40HQ, directly comparable)
| Lane / port | September | October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Asia · Haiphong | 800 | 1,000 | +25% |
| Southeast Asia · Ho Chi Minh / Cai Mep | 1,000 | 1,300 | +30% |
| Southeast Asia · Laem Chabang / Bangkok | 1,100 | 1,500 | +36% |
| Southeast Asia · Singapore | 1,200 | 1,700 | +42% |
| Southeast Asia · Port Klang | 1,500 | 1,900 | +27% |
| Southeast Asia · Jakarta | 1,200 | 1,500 | +25% |
| Southeast Asia · Manila | 500 | 850 | +70% |
| North Europe base | 3,500 | 3,300 | −6% |
| West Mediterranean | 3,600 | 3,700 | +3% |
| East Med & Black Sea | 4,500 | 4,800 | +7% |
| Africa · South Africa | 4,000 | 5,200 | +30% |
| Africa · West Africa | 4,500 | 4,200 | −7% |
| Africa · East Africa | 5,500 | 5,000 | −9% |
| WCSA | 6,000 | 6,300 | +5% |
| ECSA | 8,700 | 5,600 | −36% |
| Caribbean | 10,000 | 9,500 | −5% |
| Central America | 9,000 | 7,000 | −22% |
| Indian Sub. · Nhava Sheva | 3,500 | 3,800 | +9% |
| Australia · Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane | 5,200 | 5,000 | −4% |
| North America · Los Angeles / New York | not quoted last month | 7,000 / 9,000 | – |
September figures are taken from our own Global Freight Rates September 2026 edition. Both months are Qingdao-origin working rates per 40HQ, so they are directly comparable. Mexico was not itemised last month and no change is shown.
2. Lane by Lane: Rates, Causes, and What to Do
2.1 Asia–Europe: spot falling while carriers file for 19 October – a gap of about USD 800
Where it stands: North Europe base port 3,300, West Mediterranean 3,700, East Mediterranean and Black Sea 4,800 per 40HQ. Against the market: Shanghai–Rotterdam spot is 3,399, down 16.9% from early September with Asia–Europe spot now in its thirteenth straight weekly decline; Shanghai–Genoa is 3,702, down 15.2%. Our North Europe number is below spot, and the West Mediterranean is broadly in line with it.
Why: two forces are pulling in opposite directions. On the downside, Suez is reopening in earnest – according to Linerlytica, 140 container ships have structurally switched back from the Cape of Good Hope routing since May, a little over 2 million TEU of capacity in total. Shorter voyages are, in effect, free capacity. On the upside, carriers have filed increases: Hapag-Lloyd has published FAK from a 19 October tariffing date at USD 4,200 per 40HQ to North Europe, 4,600 to the West Mediterranean, 5,100 to the East Mediterranean and 5,200 to the Black Sea; across the 19–30 October window Maersk is at 4,000 per FEU and Hapag-Lloyd at 4,200 per FEU. CMA CGM's FAK filing effective 19 October covers Asia to the Mediterranean and North Africa, so it does not extend to North Europe. Because the two cancel out, spot is not rising at all.
Non-urgent Europe cargo: you can wait and see whether carriers actually collect after the 19th. If volumes do not support it, November offers a better entry.
East Med and Black Sea (4,800): do not expect it to follow North Europe down. This leg is supported by Black Sea routing costs and regional risk and is likely to hold. Ship essential volumes normally; do not speculate on a fall.
2.2 South America: CMA CGM adds USD 1,000 per box from 15 October – the 14th matters
Where it stands: WCSA 6,300, ECSA 5,600, Central America 7,000, Caribbean 9,500, Mexico 6,100 per 40HQ. The Caribbean at 9,500 is the highest number anywhere in this report.
Month on month: WCSA 6,000 to 6,300 (+5%), ECSA 8,700 to 5,600 (−36%), Caribbean 10,000 to 9,500 (−5%), Central America 9,000 to 7,000 (−22%).
Note: the ECSA figure has fallen sharply and does not yet include CMA CGM's USD 1,000 increase from the 15 October bill-of-lading date. Anything loading on or after the 15th must be re-priced on the new level.
Why: CMA CGM has filed notice that from the 15 October bill-of-lading date, all Asia origins to WCSA, ECSA, Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico will carry an increase of USD 1,000 per box, applied to dry, reefer and out-of-gauge equipment alike. It is the single largest increase this cycle and it covers almost the whole Latin America footprint. Carriers are also being supported by Panama Canal restrictions – daily transits were cut to 34 in early September and to 32 by mid-month, and priority transit auction prices reached record levels at the end of August, securing a 1 September northbound slot, which bites hardest on Caribbean and Central America routings.
If you cannot make it: accept the increase but ask for split-period fixing – price your October volume in an early-month and a late-month tranche rather than taking one blended new rate for the whole month.
Caribbean (9,500): if your destination sits on the Colombia or Panama side, ask us whether transhipment via Balboa works out cheaper. It often shortens the inland leg materially.
2.3 Africa: South Africa up 30% in a month while West and East Africa ease
Where it stands: South Africa (Durban and others) 5,200, West Africa (Lagos, Tema and others) 4,200, East Africa (Mombasa, Dar es Salaam and others) 5,000 per 40HQ.
Month on month: South Africa 4,000 to 5,200 (+30%), West Africa 4,500 to 4,200 (−7%), East Africa 5,500 to 5,000 (−9%) – the three are moving in different directions, and South Africa is the only one actually rising.
Why: South Africa is the most consistently rising lane this month and the filings are stacked. CMA CGM applied a peak season surcharge on China, North East Asia and Southeast Asia to Durban – the first tier, effective 25 September, was USD 350 per TEU, with a further updated tier since. Maersk applies a PSS of USD 250 per 20ft and USD 500 per 40ft from 15 October on Far East Asia to South Africa and Mauritius. The holiday week did not slow it: MSC pushed South Africa to a period high across 24–30 September and has signalled it will hold through October; CMA CGM added a further USD 265 on its Africa lines for October on top of the month-end increase; Evergreen moved to a recent high and rolled week 40 receiving vessels into week 41 to clear rolled boxes and trim space. On West Africa the ocean freight itself is easing: the Ningbo Shipping Exchange West Africa lane index printed 1,348.37 on 2 October and fell back to 1,283.76 by 9 October. What does raise landed cost is CMA CGM's destination-graded PSS of USD 200–550 per TEU, phased in on 21 September, 15 October and 22 October.
What to do: South Africa (5,200) – the only lane here rising materially, with MSC, CMA CGM and Maersk pushing in sequence. Ship essential volumes early; hold non-urgent cargo for November rather than buying into a synchronised push.
West Africa (4,200) and East Africa (5,000) – both are 7–9% below September, but two further CMA CGM PSS tiers land on 15 and 22 October, so a lower ocean rate does not mean a lower landed cost. Compare quotations on an all-in basis.
On East Africa specifically: equipment is tight on the Mombasa side, so confirm equipment availability at the same time as you book. Do not negotiate rate alone.
2.4 Southeast Asia: overbooking, not pricing, is the risk
Where it stands: Haiphong 1,000, Ho Chi Minh 1,300, Laem Chabang 1,500, Singapore 1,700, Port Klang 1,900, Jakarta 1,500, Manila 850 per 40HQ. Manila is the cheapest number in this report; Port Klang the most expensive in Asia.
Why: this round is being driven by ports, not carriers. Of the 21 lanes monitored by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange, the Thailand–Vietnam lane index rose 18.6% in a single week and close to 46% over half a month – note that this is a combined Thailand and Vietnam lane index, not a single-port reading for Laem Chabang; the Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) prints USD 1,518 per FEU, up 212% year on year. On the ground: Port Klang ran emergency dredging from 7 to 27 September, taking one deep-water berth out of service for the duration (that work has now finished); Tanjung Pelepas suffered a cyber attack on 9 September in which terminal operating systems were affected and container handling paused temporarily, then recovered gradually using manual gate processing; according to Linerlytica, average berth waiting at Shanghai reached 5.46 days in the first week of September. On industry data, Southeast Asia's share of global port congestion rose from 7% to 11% within a month.
1. Build 7–10 days of buffer into the plan; do not back-schedule production from an ideal sailing date.
2. When booking, ask explicitly whether space is guaranteed. In an overbooked market the difference between protected and unprotected space is far larger than a USD 200–300 rate gap.
3. For urgent cargo to Port Klang or Ho Chi Minh, book two to three weeks ahead.
4. Manila at 850 is the value pocket this month – Philippines cargo is worth moving now.
2.5 Transpacific: rates rose through the holiday instead of easing, with the East Coast near record territory
Where it stands: Los Angeles 7,000 and New York 9,000 per 40HQ. Against the market: Shanghai–Los Angeles spot is 7,835, up 9.0% from early September, and Shanghai–New York is 10,428, up 8.8% and at its highest since June 2022. Our numbers sit USD 835 and USD 1,428 below spot respectively – the widest gap of any lane this month.
Why: demand is holding on restocking while capacity is being withdrawn. Across weeks 38 to 42, 79 of 721 scheduled sailings were cancelled, a cancellation rate of about 11%, with the Transpacific accounting for 52% of those and Asia–Europe plus Mediterranean 33%. Less space means the rate holds.
What to do: US West Coast (7,000) – the gap to spot is materially in your favour, so fix essential volume now.
US East Coast (9,000) – this is already high. Hold non-urgent cargo into November and wait for blank sailings to normalise. If it has to move, price a West Coast discharge with inland intermodal; it sometimes beats an all-water East Coast routing.
Both coasts: book two to three weeks ahead, as October blank sailings remain elevated.
2.6 Middle East: a high plateau where schedule, not rate, is the problem
Where it stands: Jebel Ali (Dubai) 7,800 per 40HQ, modestly below September's 8,000–9,000 range. The published reference here is the SCFI Middle East (Dubai) sub-lane at USD 6,489 per TEU on 30 September, down 1% week on week, so the official reading has already started to ease. The index is quoted per TEU and working rates per 40HQ; the two are not comparable and we draw no rate-gap claim from them.
Why: geopolitical risk premium is already priced in and the lane has moved into a high plateau – it cannot rise much and does not fall. Surcharge pressure continues: CMA CGM raised its emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) from 1 October, to USD 265 per TEU dry and USD 320 per TEU reefer on head-haul legs. What actually hurts shippers here is schedule integrity: Hormuz transit volumes remain volatile and berth waiting at Red Sea and Saudi Arabian ports has run to 7–14 days, which will consume your lead time regardless of what you paid.
What to do: the rate is already in your favour, so spend the negotiation on schedule and destination service – direct versus transhipment, expected berth wait, and how demurrage and detention are calculated.
For time-sensitive cargo such as project material or exhibition goods, build explicit allowance for destination berth waiting and do not promise your customer a normal transit.
2.7 Indian Subcontinent and Australia: two quiet lanes that are tightening
Where it stands: Nhava Sheva 3,800; Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane 5,000 per 40HQ.
Why: the subcontinent is being pulled by strong transhipment demand through Nhava Sheva, which tightens space and has rates edging up. October working rate is 3,800, up 9% from 3,500 in September. Australia is following the broader SCFI Oceania move upward, with post-holiday bookings concentrated enough that space is less comfortable than it was.
What to do: Indian Subcontinent (3,800) – still low in absolute terms, so book planned volumes ahead rather than scrambling for spot.
Australia (5,000) – book two weeks out, and remember Australian destination charges vary by port and carrier and must be confirmed item by item at booking: verifiable terminal-side charges include AUD 224.90 per import laden box at Sydney and AUD 242.00 at Melbourne, both plus GST, with the carrier invoice controlling. Budget destination costs as a separate line and do not compare ocean freight alone.
3. Index Reference (data as at 1 October 2026)
| Indicator | Now | vs early Sept | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai–Rotterdam spot Drewry WCI · 1 Oct | 3,399 | −16.9% | Thirteenth straight weekly fall; inverted against the 4,200 filed for 19 Oct |
| Shanghai–Genoa spot Drewry WCI · 1 Oct | 3,702 | −15.2% | Mediterranean tracking down on Suez return |
| Shanghai–Los Angeles spot Drewry WCI · 1 Oct | 7,835 | +9.0% | Blank sailings tighten the Pacific |
| Shanghai–New York spot Drewry WCI · 1 Oct | 10,428 | +8.8% | Highest since June 2022 |
| SCFI Middle East (Dubai) Shanghai Shipping Exchange · 30 Sep | 6,489 USD/TEU | −1% w/w | Official sub-lane print, quoted per TEU; easing slightly at a high level |
| Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) Drewry · 1 Oct | 1,518 USD/FEU | +15.7% | Up 212% year on year; the congestion signature |
| SCFI composite Shanghai Shipping Exchange · 30 Sep | 3,662 | −0.66% | Eight weekly gains followed by two consecutive weekly falls |
| Africa (West / South / East) values not published by the exchange | No SCFI index | – | Sub-lane values not published; use working rates and filings |
Index and working-rate figures will not match, and that is expected: indices are published per TEU or FEU and are mostly port-to-port, while our figures are all-in per 40HQ. Judge your position by the gap between a working rate and spot, never by the gap between a working rate and an index. The table above mixes three different indices – Drewry WCI, Drewry IACI and the Shanghai Shipping Exchange SCFI – each labelled with source and date.
3.1 Update: the latest readings, as at 9 October
The index figures and working rates in this report are taken from around 1 October (Drewry WCI on 1 October, SCFI on 30 September). Readings available at publication on 10 October are listed below so you can judge how current they are:
| Indicator | Used here | Latest reading | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drewry WCI composite | not used in this report | 4,351 | 8 Oct |
| Shanghai–Genoa | 3,702 | 3,696 | 8 Oct |
| Shanghai–Los Angeles | 7,835 | 7,624 | 8 Oct |
| Shanghai–New York | 10,428 | 10,220 | 8 Oct |
| Shanghai Shipping Exchange Southeast Asia container rate index | not used in this report | 5,769.48 | 9 Oct |
Because of the data cut-off, the two action windows in this report have narrowed. Counting from publication on 10 October: four days remain to load before 15 October (South and Central America, Caribbean, Mexico) and nine days remain to fix before 19 October (Europe and Mediterranean). Past those dates, recheck against the next quotation cycle and the latest carrier filings.
4. October Increase Calendar and How to Respond
| Effective | Trade | What | Response |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep, live | South Africa (Durban) | CMA CGM PSS, 25 Sep tier, USD 350/TEU | Already inside the 5,200 working rate |
| 1 Oct, live | All trades | CMA CGM EFS (emergency fuel surcharge) to USD 265/TEU dry and USD 320/TEU reefer head-haul; USD 75 dry and USD 90 reefer back-haul and intra-region | Make sure quotations show it |
| 15 Oct | South Africa & Mauritius | Maersk PSS USD 250/20ft, USD 500/40ft | Hold non-urgent cargo to November |
| 15 Oct, B/L date | WCSA / ECSA / CentAm / Caribbean / Mexico | CMA CGM USD +1,000 per box – dry, reefer, out-of-gauge (OOG) and paid empties | Load by 14 Oct to avoid it |
| 19 Oct | Europe & Mediterranean | Hapag-Lloyd FAK North Europe 4,200/40HQ, West Med 4,600, East Med 5,100, Black Sea 5,200 | Fix before 19 Oct, save around 900 |
| 19–30 Oct | North Europe | Maersk 4,000/FEU and Hapag-Lloyd 4,200/FEU; CMA CGM's 19 Oct filing covers Asia–Mediterranean and North Africa, not North Europe | Watch whether it actually collects |
| 21 Sep / 15 Oct / 22 Oct | West Africa (CMA CGM PSS) | Destination-graded PSS of USD 200–550 per TEU, phased in across three dates | Compare all-in, not ocean freight alone |
5. Risks This Month and the Right Response
| Risk | Impact | Response |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast Asia overbooking and rolling | Missed sailings and broken commitments, costing more than freight | 7–10 days of buffer, guaranteed space in writing, book 2–3 weeks out |
| Europe increase landing on 19 Oct | About USD 800 more per 40HQ | Fix before the 19th, or split volume across the two halves of the month |
| South America USD 1,000 on 15 Oct | Materially higher landed cost per box | Load by 14 Oct, or fix in early and late tranches |
| Blank sailings extending past Golden Week | 79 of 721 scheduled sailings cancelled in weeks 38–42, an 11% cancellation rate, 52% Transpacific | Book US trades 2–3 weeks out; watch schedule change notices |
| Port Klang: 7–27 Sep dredging completed, berth windows still tight | Malaysia handling and transhipment delay | Route urgent cargo via Singapore, or confirm berth windows in advance |
| Suez reopening continuing | Releases capacity, presses Europe rates down over time – in the shipper's favour | Keep Europe contracts short; do not lock in pre-reopening levels |
| Surcharge layering (EFS / PSS / ETS) | Real spend underestimated against a bare ocean rate | Require every surcharge itemised; compare on an all-in basis |
Index data: Drewry WCI (1 October 2026 – composite USD 4,434/40ft, −1%; Shanghai–Rotterdam 3,399, −2%; Genoa 3,702, −3%; Los Angeles 7,835, flat; New York 10,428, +1%), Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index (USD 1,518/FEU, 3.1x year on year), Shanghai Shipping Exchange SCFI (30 September 2026 – composite 3,662.30, −0.66%) and Ningbo Shipping Exchange NCFI West Africa (1,348.37 on 2 October, 1,283.76 on 9 October), plus carrier tariff announcements. Working rates are Great Hensen Qingdao quotes as at 1 October 2026. Rates are indicative, move weekly, and are confirmed at booking.
October 2026 Rate Report Matrix
Month-on-month comparison baseline
Pillar: rate structure and booking strategy
How WCI, SCFI and IACI differ