In This Report
30-Second Summary 1. Global Rates Overview — Eight Lanes Side by Side (as of 2026-09-11) 2. Why the Divergence — Three Forces in a Tug-of-War 3. Lane-by-Lane Analysis and Action Points 4. Lane Outlook and the Q4 Risk Register Need a Firm Quote for a Specific Lane?- The keyword this month is neither "up" nor "down" — it is divergence. The SCFI composite index stood at 3,590.05 on Sep 4 (a sixth consecutive weekly gain, +2.29%, a two-year-plus high), but almost all of that gain came from the US lanes and the intra-Asia lanes — Europe and the Mediterranean were falling over the same period.
- Three entirely opposing curves: the US lanes +4.35%, Southeast Asia +12% and Australia–New Zealand +6.84% led the gains; Europe −2.69% (nine consecutive weekly declines) and the Mediterranean −3.23% stayed under pressure; South America +3.35% and the Persian Gulf −0.07% held at a high plateau.
- Behind the divergence, three forces are pulling in different directions: ① an accelerating Suez return releases capacity → pressure on Europe–Mediterranean; ② Panama Canal transit cuts + the National Day cargo rush → support for the US lanes and South America; ③ Asian port congestion shrinks effective capacity → lifting Southeast Asia and India–Pakistan.
- Window call: the shipping peak ahead of the National Day holiday (Oct 1–7) supports rates through mid-to-late September, but expect a pullback after the holiday — especially on the rush-driven US lanes and Southeast Asia; South America has already topped out and will grind lower through September (see 3.2).
- Great Hensen actuals generally sit below market reference (North Europe $3,500 vs. market $4,490; South America East $8,700 vs. market $9,655; Jebel Ali $8,000–9,000 vs. market $10,050), so committed volumes are best locked in batches within September (the South America lane has already turned down — do not lock long-dated rates, see 3.2).
1. Global Rates Overview — Eight Lanes Side by Side (as of 2026-09-11)
The table below sets the official SCFI indices alongside actual 40HQ booking rates and market reference levels. Figures marked "Actual" are Great Hensen's concluded September rates; all other figures are market reference levels (subject to quotation). Every number here moves weekly — confirm the latest rate at the time of booking.
| Lane | SCFI Index (Sep 4) | WoW Change | 40HQ Rate (Great Hensen actual / market reference) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America USWC / USEC | 7,242 · 10,324 USD/FEU | +4.35% / +2.77% | USWC 7,000–7,570 USEC 8,300–11,150 | ↑ Firm |
| South America West / East / Caribbean / Central America | 8,953 USD/TEU (Santos) | +3.35% | Actual: West 6,000 · East 8,700 Caribbean 10,000 · Central America 9,000 | ↘ Topped out, easing |
| Europe–Mediterranean North Europe / West Med / East Med | 2,643 · 3,442 USD/TEU | −2.69% / −3.23% | Actual: North Europe 3,500 · West Med 3,600 East Med & Black Sea 4,500 | ↓ Grinding lower |
| Africa West / South / East Africa | No SCFI index available | — | Actual: West Africa 4,500 · South Africa 4,000 East Africa 5,500 | ↑ Carriers pushing up |
| Southeast Asia Vietnam / Thailand / Singapore–Malaysia / Indonesia / Philippines | 893 USD/TEU | +12% | Actual: Haiphong 800 · Ho Chi Minh 1,000 · Laem Chabang 1,100 Singapore 1,200 · Port Klang 1,500 Jakarta 1,200 · Manila 500 | ↑ Surging |
| Australia Australia–New Zealand | 2,640 USD/TEU | +6.84% | Actual: Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane 5,200 Auckland (market reference) 5,500–6,000 | ↑ Rising |
| Middle East Persian Gulf / Red Sea | 6,135 USD/TEU | −0.07% | Actual: Jebel Ali 8,000–9,000 Jeddah · Dammam 10,000–11,000 | → Plateau |
| India–Pakistan India West Coast | NCFI +7.12% | +7.12% | Actual: Nhava Sheva 3,500 (market reference 3,750) | ↑ Rising |
SCFI figures follow the official convention (FEU for the US lanes; TEU for Europe–Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf and Australia–New Zealand); 40HQ is the number shippers care about most — what one 40-foot high-cube container actually costs. The two use different units and definitions and cannot be converted directly. On Africa: there is no SCFI sub-index published for West Africa / South Africa / East Africa (the Shanghai Shipping Exchange did not release values for these three sub-lanes this period), so the Africa row shows Great Hensen actuals only, with no index comparison. Sources: Shanghai Shipping Exchange (2026-09-04), Ningbo Shipping Exchange NCFI, Drewry WCI (Sep 3), Cailianshe, carrier announcements and the Great Hensen market desk.
2. Why the Divergence — Three Forces in a Tug-of-War
Break the eight lanes' moves apart and only three sets of variables are really at work. Understanding those three matters far more than memorising any single number.
① An accelerating Suez return → capacity released → Europe–Mediterranean under pressure
Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM are phasing services back through Suez; COSCO's AEM3 service vessel "COSCO SHIPPING ROSE" voyage 045W resumed Suez routing from September 8, and some CMA CGM FAL3 voyages have also switched back or are scheduled to. A wider reopening shortens Asia–Europe round-trip times and gradually releases effective capacity, applying medium-term pressure to Europe–Mediterranean. Add Maersk's cancellation — effective September 1 — of peak-season surcharges on Far East–North Europe and Far East–Mediterranean services, and the price-cutting signal on Europe–Mediterranean is unambiguous.
② Panama Canal transit cuts + the National Day rush → supporting the US lanes and South America
Panama Canal capacity remains constrained: the daily transit quota was cut to 34 vessels from September 3 and to 32 from September 15; CMA CGM raised its Panama Canal adjustment fee to USD 500/TEU from September 10. At the same time, factories are front-loading shipments ahead of Golden Week, driving a short-term demand spike. Rising demand against shrinking supply keeps rates high on the US East Coast, US Gulf, South America and Caribbean lanes.
③ Asian port congestion → effective capacity shrinks → Southeast Asia and India–Pakistan pushed up
Southeast Asia posted a gain of roughly 12% this week, the sharpest of any lane — driven not by a demand surge but by congestion at several Asian ports, which slows vessel turnaround: ships cannot return for their next voyage on schedule, so effective capacity contracts accordingly. NCFI shows the Thailand–Vietnam, Singapore–Malaysia and India–Pakistan lanes up 18.6%, (Singapore–Malaysia also higher) and 7.12% respectively. On top of that, frequent typhoons are causing vessel delays, omitted port calls and extra blank sailings, pushing intra-Asia rates higher still.
3. Lane-by-Lane Analysis and Action Points
3.1 North America (USWC / USEC) — The Strongest Lane; Lock Space Before the Holiday
Current level: SCFI USWC 7,242 USD/FEU (+4.35%) and USEC 10,324 USD/FEU (+2.77%), both still climbing. The spot market is higher: USWC 40HQ around 7,000–7,570 (Ocean Alliance 7,570 / regular services 7,000), USEC around 8,300–11,150 (Ocean Alliance 11,150 / regular services 8,300 / ZIM express 9,400).
What's driving it: pre-National Day cargo rush + Panama Canal transit cuts (34 vessels on Sep 3 → 32 on Sep 15) + typhoon-driven port congestion and more blank sailings.
Outlook: range-bound at high levels until the National Day holiday; after the holiday, falling volumes and restored sailings create downside pressure.
Action point: if you have cargo to ship, lock space early — waiting risks finding no space, or a rate increase, near the sailing date; non-urgent cargo can target the post-holiday window.
3.2 South America (West / East / Caribbean / Central America) — Topped Out; the Decline Accelerates in October
Current level: SCFI South America (Santos) 8,953 USD/TEU (+3.35%) is still high, but actuals have already turned down first — Great Hensen 40HQ actuals: South America West 6,000 / South America East 8,700 / Caribbean 10,000 / Central America 9,000 (market reference: West 7,450, East 9,655). An index still at highs while actuals are already being marked down is a classic topping signal.
What's driving it: Panama Canal transit cuts providing a floor + peak-season surcharge (PSS) still in force + global port congestion and the South American local peak season.
Outlook: rates have topped out, will grind lower through September, and the decline accelerates in October.
Action point: do not lock long-dated rates any longer: for firm requirements, quote weekly and ship in batches; non-urgent cargo can wait for lower rates in October; if you have already signed a high-priced contract, renegotiate with the carrier as soon as possible. Booking lead time can come back in to 1–2 weeks.
3.3 Europe–Mediterranean (North Europe / West Med / East Med & Black Sea) — Seasonal Softening; Wait and See
Current level: SCFI Europe 2,643 USD/TEU (−2.69%, nine consecutive weekly declines), Mediterranean 3,442 USD/TEU (−3.23%). Great Hensen 40HQ actuals: North Europe 3,500 / West Med 3,600 / East Med & Black Sea 4,500 (market reference: North Europe 4,490, Mediterranean 5,200).
What's driving it: weak off-season demand + an accelerating Suez return releasing capacity + dense deployment of 20,000 TEU-class vessels + Maersk cancelling peak-season surcharges on Sep 1. Some spot sailings have already dropped to 3,500–3,600 USD/FEU, with actual cargo-solicitation prices around 3,300 USD/FEU.
Outlook: still grinding lower. If the reopening widens further, the medium-term pressure will be more pronounced.
Action point: the lows are now attractive, so non-urgent cargo can wait a little longer; committed volumes can be locked in batches, though the downside is constrained by the pace of the Suez reopening.
3.4 Africa (West / South / East Africa) — Actuals Below Market Reference Across the Board
Current level: Great Hensen 40HQ actuals: West Africa 4,500 / South Africa 4,000 / East Africa 5,500 (market reference: Tema 5,600+, Apapa 6,500+, Durban 5,800, Mombasa 6,000+, Casablanca 7,200 — actuals sit below market reference across the board). On the indices: there is no publicly published SCFI sub-index for West Africa / South Africa / East Africa (the Shanghai Shipping Exchange did not release values for these three sub-lanes this period), so this section rests on Great Hensen actuals and carrier announcements rather than an index read on direction.
What's driving it: MSC, CMA CGM and others raised FAK rates on Far East–Africa from September 1, on top of peak-season surcharges (PSS).
Outlook: with the September 1 FAK increases plus PSS, net settled prices remain on an upward track; port efficiency varies widely and some ports are heavily congested, so destination charges and demurrage risk need to be built into total cost up front.
Action point: confirm sailing schedules and destination customs-clearance conditions in advance; for West Africa, watch anchorage waiting times closely.
3.5 Southeast Asia (Vietnam / Thailand / Singapore–Malaysia / Indonesia / Philippines) — The Sharpest Gainer, Driven by Congestion Not Demand
Current level: SCFI Far East → Southeast Asia 893 USD/TEU (+12%), the clearest gainer of any lane recently. Below are Great Hensen September actuals (40HQ, USD):
| Country / Region | Main Ports | Great Hensen Actual 40HQ |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Vietnam | Haiphong | 800 |
| Southern Vietnam | Ho Chi Minh / Cai Mep | 1,000 |
| Thailand | Laem Chabang / Bangkok | 1,100 |
| Singapore | Port of Singapore | 1,200 |
| Malaysia | Port Klang | 1,500 |
| Indonesia | Jakarta | 1,200 |
| Philippines | Manila | 500 |
What's driving it: Asian port congestion → slower vessel turnaround → effective capacity shrinks (NCFI: Thailand–Vietnam +18.6%, Singapore–Malaysia also higher).
Outlook: strong in the short term, with room to fall once congestion eases — this rally is a capacity story, not a demand story.
Action point: intra-Asia lanes have short transit times and frequent sailings, so flexible shipping is enough; some ports are still rolling cargo off full terminals, so leave buffer for priority shipments.
3.6 Australia / New Zealand — Capacity Withdrawn, Supply and Demand Tightening
Current level: SCFI Australia–New Zealand 2,640 USD/TEU (+6.84%). Great Hensen 40HQ actuals: Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane 5,200 USD (market reference range 4,800–5,200); Auckland, New Zealand remains on market reference at 5,500–6,000.
What's driving it: capacity supply is falling and the supply–demand balance is gradually tightening; some services have rate increases scheduled for September and October.
Outlook: still rising.
Action point: note the high fixed destination charges at Australian ports (THC, security fee, documentation, etc. — typically AUD 1,200–1,800 per 40HQ); full-container cost calculations must include all of them.
3.7 Middle East (Persian Gulf / Red Sea) — Crisis Persists; A High Plateau, Don't Chase the Top
Current level: SCFI Persian Gulf 6,135 USD/TEU (−0.07%, essentially flat). Great Hensen 40HQ actuals: Jebel Ali 8,000–9,000 / Jeddah · Dammam 10,000–11,000 (market reference: Jebel Ali 10,050, Jeddah direct 10,850, transshipment 8,900+).
Escalation in the US–Iran standoff and rising Hormuz transit risk → higher risk premiums and diversion costs; war risk premiums have climbed sharply (Persian Gulf vessel rates have at times reached 3%–6% of hull value, against 0.3%–1% for the Red Sea — far above pre-conflict levels).
Outlook: a flat index does not mean the risk has gone. The crisis is unresolved and risk costs are rigid, but rates no longer have the conditions for a one-way spike — a textbook high plateau.
Action point: don't panic-book. Lock committed volumes in batches and budget against a high plateau; for Saudi destinations, Jebel Ali transshipment plus trucking is an option — allow a 2–3 week buffer.
3.8 India–Pakistan (India West Coast) — Blank Sailings and Congestion Push Rates Up
Current level: NCFI India–Pakistan +7.12%. Great Hensen 40HQ actual: Nhava Sheva 3,500 USD (market reference 3,750 — actual below market).
What's driving it: blank sailings plus terminal congestion; space is tight.
Outlook: upward in the short term; the tightness should ease once capacity returns.
Action point: book early; watch for Indian port strikes and post-monsoon customs-clearance efficiency. Rates for the India East Coast (Chennai, etc.) and Pakistan (Karachi) are on request.
4. Lane Outlook and the Q4 Risk Register
One-Line Trend Calls
| Lane | Q4 Trend Call | Great Hensen Action |
|---|---|---|
| North America | Range-bound at highs before the holiday; downside pressure after | Lock space before the holiday; non-urgent cargo can wait for the post-holiday window |
| South America | Already topped out; easing through September, accelerating in October | Non-urgent cargo: wait for October; firm requirements: quote weekly and ship in batches |
| Europe–Mediterranean | Grinding lower; faster if the Suez reopening widens | Lock rates in batches; non-urgent cargo can wait a little longer |
| Africa | Firm to slightly up; port efficiency is the variable | Confirm sailing schedules and customs conditions early |
| Southeast Asia | Falls once congestion eases | Ship flexibly; leave buffer for rolled cargo |
| Australia | Still rising | Calculate total cost including destination charges |
| Middle East | High plateau, rigid risk costs | Lock in batches; don't chase the top |
| India–Pakistan | Up in the short term, then stabilising | Book early; watch for strikes |
Q4 Risk Register
| Risk / Variable | Impact | Probability | Great Hensen Response |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Day blank sailings and capacity adjustments | Sharp supply–demand swings in early October | High | Lock space and sailing dates early |
| The Suez reopening widens further | Further declines on Europe–Mediterranean | Medium–high | Non-urgent cargo can wait; track reopening progress weekly |
| Deeper Panama Canal transit cuts | US East Coast / Caribbean keep rising (South America has already topped out) | Medium | Lock rates early; prepare alternative routings to the canal |
| Middle East geopolitical escalation | War risk premiums rise again; Middle East spikes | Medium | Lock in batches; keep a Jebel Ali transshipment contingency |
| Southeast Asian port congestion eases | Southeast Asia rates fall | Medium | Ship intra-Asia flexibly; avoid long-dated locked rates |
| US tariff / policy changes | Demand pulled forward or deferred; greater volatility | Medium | Watch policy windows; ship in batches |
| Typhoon season continues | Port congestion, blank sailings, schedule delays | Medium | Allow 1–2 weeks of buffer; prioritise direct services |
Need a Firm Quote for a Specific Lane?
The actuals in this report come from Great Hensen's concluded September bookings; market reference levels move weekly. Send us your port of loading, port of discharge, commodity and volume — we will come back within 24 hours with an itemised quote including the surcharge breakdown, and secure space wherever possible.
Get a Quote NowSubscribe to the Monthly Rate ReportEurope–Mediterranean (September 2026) · South America (September 2026) · Middle East (August 2026) · Africa (August 2026) · North America (August 2026) · Southeast Asia · Australia · India–Pakistan — publishing soon.
Index figures: Shanghai Shipping Exchange SCFI (2026-09-04: composite 3,590.05 points, +2.29%, sixth straight weekly gain; USWC $7,242/FEU +4.35%; USEC $10,324/FEU +2.77%; Europe $2,643/TEU −2.69%, nine consecutive weekly declines; Mediterranean $3,442/TEU −3.23%; South America $8,953/TEU +3.35%; Southeast Asia $893/TEU +12.18%; Australia–New Zealand $2,640/TEU +6.84%; Persian Gulf $6,135/TEU −0.07%), Ningbo Shipping Exchange NCFI (week of Sep 11: composite 2,582.6 points, −0.3%; Thailand–Vietnam +18.6%), Drewry WCI, carrier announcements and the Great Hensen market desk (actuals as of 2026-09-11). Rates are indicative and move weekly; the latest quote governs at the time of booking.
September 2026 Rates Report Matrix
Divergence and Q4 risk register
Peak signal and actuals
Nine drops and Suez return